Recently, "LME nickel futures event" in the global market caused a storm. After the event, LME took temporary suspension, set up the new limit rules, allowing enterprises to move positions to relieve delivery pressure, and actively mediate between long and short positions. The LME reopened at 8am London time on March 16, but trading after the opening showed that the system was not fully up and running. However, the LME is trying to restore the system in order to preserve the UK financial industry and its century-old brand reputation.
Obstaja veliko dejavnikov, ki prispevajo k temu incidentu. Z vidika globalne preobrazbe industrije niklja je protislovje med tradicionalnim mehanizmom za določanje cen niklja in novo razvojno situacijo posledica obstoječega oblikovanja terminskih pogodb o niklju, ki ne more slediti velikim spremembam v svetovni industriji niklja.
Globalna veriga industrije niklja
The pattern of "advancing east and retreating west" is gradually presented
From the perspective of geographical change, from 2001 to 2021, China's share of global primary nickel consumption increased from 4.5 percent to 56 percent . China's share of global stainless steel production rose from 3.7 percent to 56 percent . Meanwhile, In 2005, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest nickel consumer and the world's largest stainless steel producer. In 2009, China overtook Russia to become the world's largest producer of primary nickel. In 2021, Indonesia surpassed China to become the largest nickel producer, and the production share of China and India accounts for 60 percent of the global total. Driven by Chinese enterprises, Indonesia has become the second largest stainless steel producer in the world. In the same year, China accounted for 78 percent of the global production of ternary precursors. Ternary cathode material production accounted for 60 percent of the world's total output.
From the perspective of product structure change, in 2012, primary nickel (electrolytic nickel plate, nickel bean, nickel bead) production accounted for 51 percent , secondary nickel (ferric nickel, nickel pig iron, sintered nickel oxide, universal nickel) production accounted for 38 percent , nickel salt (nickel sulfate, nickel nitrate, etc.) production accounted for 11 percent . In 2021, 33 percent of the world's primary nickel production will be primary nickel, and nearly 50 percent will be nickel pig iron, with the rest made up of conventional nickel iron and nickel salt. In the future global nickel product mix, the proportion of primary nickel production will continue to decline, while the proportion of nickel pig iron and nickel sulfate production will continue to increase. By 2025, primary nickel production is expected to account for 17.7 percent of global primary nickel production, while nickel pig iron, ferric nickel and nickel salt production are expected to account for a combined 82.2 percent .
Glavna spremenljivka, ki vpliva na spremembo cene niklja
V 41 letih od 1980 do 2021 lahko globalni trend cen niklja v grobem razdelimo na štiri stopnje:
Prva faza je pred letom 2001, ZDA, Japonska in Evropa so bile takrat glavne države in regije proizvodnje in porabe niklja, predmeti oblikovanja cen in vplivni dejavniki pa so imeli različne značilnosti The Timesa.
The second stage is from 2001 to 2010. After China's accession to the WTO, the global commodity market developed rapidly and ushered in the "golden decade". The demand in the market stimulated the rising price, and Chinese nickel enterprises formally entered the global horizon.
In the third stage, from 2011 to 2016, China, Indonesia and the Philippines dominated the global nickel supply, laterite nickel ore became the "new favorite of the market", and nickel price generally showed a downward trend.
The fourth stage is from 2017 to the global EV development stage. The application of nickel expands new development space and China's influence in the global nickel market increases year by year.
LME kot svetovni organ za določanje cen barvnih{0}}kovin ima velik vpliv na tržne cene. Je pa tudi produkt The Timesa, ko so ZDA, Japonska in Evropa glavni proizvajalci in potrošniki. Leta 2001 je Kitajska vstopila na svetovni trg in pokazala ogromen vpliv tako na ponudbo kot na povpraševanje. Ker se globalno središče proizvodnje in porabe niklja premakne v Azijo, zlasti na Kitajsko, je Kitajska postala največja spremenljivka, ki vpliva na faktor tržne cene niklja.
From the recent performance of the domestic spot market, industry chain customers reflected the nickel price of the basic judgment, the domestic spot market transaction will affect the futures market. Prior to the absence of LME quotes, domestic futures exchanges operated normally, stabilizing market sentiment. After the LME opened, the domestic nickel futures and spot market prices had a certain guiding effect on the LME. It can be said that this "nickel futures event" not only reflects the improvement of China's pricing influence in the futures market, but also reflects the price discourse power of the global nickel real industry chain represented by China.
Zadovoljiti potrebe nastajajočih trgov za varovanje pred tveganjem
Grozeči
The development of new energy vehicles has brought huge consumption expectations to the nickel market. According to IEA data, based on "the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 46 million in 2030, the global power battery installation capacity will reach 3000Gwh and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50 percent ", the compound growth rate of global primary nickel consumption will be 6 percent from 2021 to 2030, and the compound growth rate of nickel demand in the power battery industry will exceed 40 percent .
Da bi zadostili velikemu povpraševanju industrije baterij, se je v Indonezijo v zadnjih letih vlilo veliko denarja, zaradi česar je postala vroča točka za globalne naložbe v nikelj. Toda v nekaterih tujih tradicionalnih podjetjih za proizvodnjo niklja se proizvodnja zaradi različnih razlogov ne poveča, temveč zmanjša. Z nenadnim porastom industrijske verige na koncu dobave (nikljev surovo železo, nikelj mat, nikljev mokri intermediat, nikelj mat, nikelj sulfat) in močnim razvojem nove verige energetske industrije na koncu potrošnika (prekurzor terpolimera, katodni material , baterije, avtomobili), podjetja v verigi industrije nikljevega sulfata zahtevajo ohranjanje vrednosti kot odgovor na nihanje cene niklja. Kot nov in hitro rastoči trg se število povezanih podjetij iz leta v leto povečuje in ta podjetja so v zadnjih letih postala potencialne stranke večjih borz doma in v tujini. Vendar pa trenutno vse terminske borze doma in v tujini jemljejo elektrolitski nikelj kot cilj trgovanja in nobena pogodba ni popolnoma primerna za njihove izdelke. Kako lahko izmenjave zadovoljijo potrebe po ohranjanju teh nastajajočih trgov in novih strank? Avtor predlaga, da bi morale terminske borze doma in v tujini iti v korak s The Timesom in razvijati nove pogodbe, kot sta nikelj surovo železo ali nikelj sulfat z veliko naklado.
Cena niklja se bo v prihodnosti vrnila k racionalnosti
LME je 16. marca po londonskem času nadaljevala trgovanje z absolutnimi cenami, ki so zdaj višje kot doma. Torej, lahko mednarodna in domača ohranita preteklo navzkrižno{1}}tržno arbitražo, model cenovne konvergence? V kakšnem razponu bo cena niklja v prihodnosti stabilna? Avtor razmišlja, vrednost odloča o ceni, cena niha okoli vrednosti. Vrednost niklja in splošni trend poznejše cene niklja je mogoče analizirati na več ključnih točkah, odkar je LME začela trgovati z nikljem.
Leta 1979 je LME začel trgovati z nikljem. Od leta 1980 do 2021 je povprečna cena 3-mesečnih terminskih pogodb LME od leta 1980 11.310 USD/tono. Povprečna cena od leta 2001 je 15.798 na tono; Povprečna cena od leta 2005 (Filipini, Indonezija laterit nikljeva ruda na koncu dobave, Kitajska je začela proizvajati nikelj surovega železa) je 17.389 / tono; Povprečna cena od leta 2017 (ko so se pojavile-trosmerne baterije) je 13.991/tono. Od leta 2000 do 2021 je bila letna cena v letu 2007 najvišja 36.126 na tono. Ob upoštevanju učinkov inflacije in drugih dejavnikov je povprečna trimesečna terminska cena LME od leta 2001 do 2021 22.979 / tono.
V četrtem četrtletju 2021 je bilo pričakovati, da se bodo cene niklja v letu 2022 vse višje in nižje gibale. Avtor meni, da bo po eni strani nov projekt niklja v Indoneziji namenjen predvsem zadovoljevanju vse večjega povpraševanja po baterijah, avtomobilih in drugem v spodnjem delu verige. polja. Po drugi strani pa ZDA, Južna Koreja, Evropa in druge države in regije vse bolj posvečajo pozornost baterijskim kovinam, niklju in drugim strateškim kovinam, obstaja možnost nekonvencionalnega povpraševanja. Na tej stopnji svetovni trg niklja še ni iztisnil visokih stroškov delnic, prihodnji trg ne bi smel biti preveč pesimističen.
Na podlagi več kot 20-letnih podatkov o delovanju cen niklja v celotnem gospodarskem ciklu in ob upoštevanju ključnih dejavnikov, ki vplivajo na razvoj industrije niklja, avtor meni, da naj bi cena lunnija nihala pri 30,000/tono v drugem četrtletju 2022. Cene bi lahko padle na približno 22,000 tono v drugi polovici, glede na hitrost novih projektov, ki prihajajo v tok v Indoneziji, in visoke cene, ki zavirajo porabo.
Nove težave v novih okoliščinah
Will the recent occurrence of "nickel futures event" affect the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in futures? What can we learn from the new varieties in the future? The author believes that the impact in the short term is inevitable, but because of the particularity of nickel, for most non-ferrous metal varieties, years of operation experience shows that the current mechanism can basically meet the development requirements of the industry. Of course, relevant enterprises take the initiative to carry out self-examination, nip in the bud is very necessary.
S predlogom dvojnega ogljičnega cilja se je delež čiste energije v mešanici energetskih virov povečal, razvoj svetovnih električnih vozil pa je dosegel vzpon. V zadnjih letih se tržni delež niklja, kobalta, litija in silicija povečuje in veliko je udeležencev. CME je že sklenil litijevo terminsko pogodbo, Londonska borza kovin pa načrtuje tudi sklenitev nekaterih novih pogodb za kovinske baterije. Vidi se, da velike terminske borze pripisujejo velik pomen nastajajočim industrijam in trgom.
