Leta 2021 se je epidemija COVID-19 še naprej širila po svetu, medtem ko so Združene države še naprej izvajale politike blažitve denarne politike. Potem ko je Biden prevzel funkcijo, je predlagal načrte porabe, ki vključujejo 1,9 bilijona ekonomske pomoči in 1,2 bilijona zakona za izgradnjo infrastrukture. Prekomerno izdajanje denarja je bilo neizogibno, kar je dvignilo cene surovin, vključno z navadnimi kovinami. Med njimi so se v ospredju dvignile cene pločevine.
Leta 2021 je cena kositra na mednarodnem trgu kazala trend enostranskega naraščanja, letna uradna kotacija kositra na LME pa se je zvišala za 86 odstotkov. Najnižja cena je bila 20.710/tono, najvišja pa 39.875/tono. Povprečna cena je bila 31.141/tono, z letnim-na-letnim povečanjem za 82 odstotkov. Zaloge LME so se povečale za 8,6 odstotka z 1,860 tone na 2020 ton.
V letu 2021 lahko trend cen kositra na LME v grobem razdelimo na dva kroga rasti, od začetka leta do konca septembra se je cena dvignila z 20.970 USD/tono na 35800 USD/tono, relativno najvišjo vrednost leta, v v začetku oktobra rahlo popravek na 33400 USD/tono nizke vrednosti, nato pa je drugi val ponovnega dviga konec novembra dosegel 39875 USD/tono. Od takrat šok traja do konca leta.
Podobno kot pri trendu cen kositra na LME, leta 2021 tudi promptna cena kositra v Šanghaju zaradi vala naraščajočega trga. Šanghajski tržni indeks kositra se je letos povečal za 95 odstotkov. Najnižja je 152.838 juanov/tono, najvišja je 300.063 juanov/tono, povprečje je 227.049 juanov/tono, letno-na-letno povečanje za 87 odstotkov. Zaloge so se v preteklem obdobju močno zmanjšale s 5.574 ton na 1.260 ton, kar je 77-odstotni upad.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Po podatkih, ki jih je objavil Svetovni urad za statistiko kovin (WBMS), je bila leta 2021 globalna prijavljena proizvodnja rafiniranega kositra 380.100 mt, povpraševanje pa 378.800 mt, kar je rahlo presežek.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Glede na ceno naj bi lunxi letos deloval v območju 40,000 48,000 USD/tono, Huxi pa se bo prilagodil in šokiral v območju 300.000 350.000 RMB/tono.
